On Wednesday, December 8, the Monetary Policy Council set a new level of the reference interest rate – it will increase by 0.5 pp, ie it will amount to 1.75 percent from Thursday. The remaining interest rates are as follows:
After the MPC communiqué about the interest rate hike, economists believe that this is not the end of the rate hike cycle. ING Bank Śląski experts indicate that the target level of interest rates is over 3%.
Experts from Pekao SA are a bit more conservative and indicate that the end of the increases will be the level of 3%.
About the level of “at least” 3 percent. macroeconomic analysts of the Polish Economic Institute also write in their commentary after the MPC decision.
It is still probably not the end of the cycle of increases – with the current inflation the decline in the value of savings is still fast even compared to recent years. We expect interest rates to rise to at least 3 percent. by the end of 2022. The current interest rate, excluding inflation, is currently low compared to other EU countries – we believe that the NBP will strive to achieve similar figures as in other large economies, e.g. in Italy or France. The problem is also the spread of inflation. Currently, prices over 55 percent. products and services are growing at a pace exceeding the allowable fluctuation band for the NBP target (3.5%).
Also mBank’s economists believe that MPC members want to raise interest rates, which they indicated in the statement after the meeting.