The information from the central bank shows that gold resources in January this year amounted to 7 million 352 thousand. ounces, at the beginning of 2019 it was 4 million 136 thousand. ounces.
The bank also announced that the value of the metal in October this year increased to PLN 52 451 million from PLN 51 billion 498 million in September this year.
At the beginning of this year, the value of the gold collected by NBP was PLN 51 23 million, and at the beginning of 2019 it was PLN 20 385 million.
In the explanations of the NBP, monetary gold is presented in ounces and its market value is shown.
In recent years, the NBP has moved in the ranking of gold resources from 32nd to 22nd position among central banks in the world and from 15th to 11th in Europe, ahead of all countries in the region.
Narodowy Bank Polski expects that the positive dynamics in the segment of corporate loans will return in the fourth quarter of this year. The NBP is also counting on a relatively fast increase in the dynamics of lending in consumer loans – according to the NBP forecasts published on Friday.
The central bank presented its forecasts for the dynamics of lending in the report “Financial system development in Poland in 2020”.
The NBP informed that the forecasts were prepared using a set of Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The forecast scenario in this class of models is autoregressive and is based solely on information derived from the values of the analyzed variables observed in the past. It was explained that such an approach enables the use of the mechanism of convergence of the forecasted categories to the long-term average, which translates into a reduction of the average forecast error.
“The VECM model predicts a return to positive dynamics in the segment of corporate loans in Q4 2021, followed by its strengthening and gradual stabilization at the level of approx. 3%. year on year in 2022 and 2023 “, the report reads.
It was added that the model shows that the consequences of the pandemic crisis will be long-term and its effects may be felt in the economy throughout the forecast horizon, i.e. until the end of 2023.
The NBP informed that with regard to consumer loans, the model predicts that in the forecast horizon a relatively rapid increase in lending dynamics to the level of approx. 5.5% should be expected. year on year in the second quarter of 2022, and then its stabilization at the level of approx. 5%. year on year in 2023.
“The resulting estimate of the path of this credit category is therefore close to the levels of dynamics observed before the pandemic. According to the assessment derived from the model, the effects of the disturbance caused by the COVID-19 pandemic may be long-term, which is indicated by a slight weakening of the upward trend in the second half of the forecast horizon “- indicated.