Omicron, the summer wave is behind us. Hospitals are emptying, but the alert is not over: “Danger for autumn”

The health situation in Italy is improving on the Covid. The variant Omicron it is now the only one circulating in our country, but the summer wave has passed and the employment of hospital wards is falling more and more: the rate falls below the alert threshold of 15%, reaching 13%. It hadn’t happened since July 7.

The summer wave it now seems to be behind us, even if the virus continues to circulate. The latest data are positive, however, both from the point of view of the contagion and of the pressure on hospitals. Yet the experts seem not to be completely calm yet: the end of the restrictions – in September there will also be a farewell to masks at school – worries many virologists and researchers in view of theAutumn.

The fear of one new wave that it starts after the summer is concrete, according to many experts. But what could happen in the coming months? And what is the current situation? Let’s try to see it based on the latest data on the circulation of variants and on the epidemiological situation and the health structures of the country.

Covid: Rt, incidence and hospitalizations drop

It’s not just the data on admissions to the medical area to go down, but also those on the occupancy of the beds in intensive care: the percentage is down to 3.2%, compared to 3.6% last week. The weekly incidence it goes from 533 to 365 cases detected per 100 thousand inhabitants.

There is also a decline the Rt index, now at 0.81 and well below the alert threshold (set at 1). Similarly, the transmissibility index calculated on cases with hospitalization is decreasing.

Omicron, the alert for autumn

Experts, however, warn that we must be especially attentive to the period to end of the summer. For example, the American virologist Anthony Fauci reiterates that the Covid is not finished: “Every time we thought it was over, another wave came“.

Even in Italy the concerns highlighted by the experts are the same. Fabrizio Pregliascovirologist and medical director of Irccs Galeazzi, asks us not to forget about Covid and Omicron because new waves will return in autumn to which we must prepare right now.

Similar the opinion of Walter Ricciardi, consultant to the Minister of Health. In particular, he emphasizes how Covid infection can emerge simultaneously in the autumn and the flu or, for children, even the syncytial virus. As is already happening in Australia. For these reasons all the experts ask to continue with the fourth dose of the vaccine, perhaps the updated one against Omicron’s sub-variants.

Omicron predominant in Italy

In Italy currently circulating almost exclusively the Omicron variant. To prove it is the flash survey of the Higher Institute of Health, the Ministry of Health and the Bruno Kessler Foundation: Omicron is the only variant present in the sampling, found in the 100% sequencing.

Specifically, it is the Omicron sub-variant 5 the predominant one, representing 91% of cases. Furthermore, compared to the previous survey, Omicron 5 appears to be on the increase, while the cases relating to Omicron 2 and 4 are decreasing. However, the much feared variant does not take off Centaurus: it was detected in only one sequence, so for now the fear of a new wave due to this sub-variant seems distant.

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About Banner Leon

Videogames entered his life in the late '80s, at the time of the first meeting with Super Mario Bros, and even today they make it a permanent part, after almost 30 years. Pros and defects: he manages to finish Super Mario Bros in less than 5 minutes but he has never finished Final Fight with a credit ... he's still trying.

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