On the ninth day of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, the genesis of Moscow’s attack on Kiev is taking shape more and more as a spy story international. A film that is not, however, with the bombs now hitting civilian buildings and reaping the deaths. Guido Olimpio takes stock of the role of China in this match, but also of American intelligence, Russian intelligence and the Ukrainian reaction. Corriere della Sera. First of all: the Americans knew. From November. And they also leaked it. By the gravity of the threat, and in the extreme attempt to bring Vladimir Putin to revise his plans: evidently a hole in the water.
The warning from the USA
The United States knew. From mid-November. Allies warn of the invasion, and Avril Haines, director of National Intelligence, comes to Europe to tell what the Americans know. But she welcomes a certain skepticism. Not even a month later, the US sends a new warning and even the Washington Post he recounts the operation that will come with precise information, assuming that it will start at the beginning of the new year and thus in fact making the Russians aware of the information in possession and the sources of the highest level that the CIA has. The agency is led by William Burns, former ambassador to Russia, who even goes to Moscow in early November to address the issue, show that the US knows, make a last-ditch attempt. Nothing in fact: the Kremlin is a rubber wall.
Putin is convinced of his strategy. It seems that he just wants to pass the Winter Olympics in China, and that indeed Beijing – wrote it yesterday again on New York Times but there is no confirmation – he would have asked just to wait. China in turn had been alerted by the US, with data and plans and a request for help to avoid the worst. But Beijing would not have believed Washington. Anonymous in these hours has published some documents which state that the attack order was scheduled for January 18 – a date that matches the American reconstructions and that would then be moved. The war in Ukraine was approved on January 18 and the attack plan included an attack from February 20 to March 6, explains the hacker collective.
The American secret services continued to collect data. The Russians, for their part, had to deal with the fact that Washington knew. In search of who could have betrayed. And wondering in the event of an attack what would have been the reaction of Ukraine, obviously informed, and of the international community itself. Positive scenarios would have been presented to Putin, then furious. And Kiev? Their security apparatuses were also infiltrated by the Russians. But what was the feedback given? That Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have fled? And the same leader of Kiev, who before the attack flaunted security and even spoke of panic created by the White House, was he sincere or did he do it out of tactics?
Again in November an interview with Military Times of the head ofintelligence Ukrainian Kyrylov Budanov proves that the Ukrainians knew, they told it, they were not taken seriously. Finally, there is the episode of the Chechen commando that was allegedly sent to kill Zelensky. Ambush thwarted thanks to the tip of a Russian informant, it seems. That Moscow wants to kill him is plausible. That we are talking about Chechens, notes the Courier serviceit is “exotic”, but it recalls their resolute approach, and role in clandestine operations for the services.
On the cover EPA / SERGEY KOZLOV | Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 3, 2022.