Recent days show that the market has clearly changed its opinion on the zloty valuation. Overnight, the Polish currency is losing 1-2 groszes each, which clearly indicates that such a pace should not be maintained for a long time.
The madness continues
Monday was another day of investors’ withdrawal from the currencies of our region. Only home sales in the US secondary market were released yesterday from macroeconomic data. Better data once again led to another strengthening of the dollar. This, in turn, is siphoning off capital from our part of the world. The result is the weakness not only of the zloty, but also of other currencies in our region. As a result, several psychological barriers in the market were broken yesterday. Euro costs over PLN 4.70. Frank exceeded the limit of PLN 4.50. The pound broke PLN 5.60, and the dollar was valued at almost PLN 4.20.
Analysts expected a clear slowdown in industrial production growth in Poland. A month ago it was an increase of 8.8%, while analysts’ expectations for October were only 5.4%. However, the actual reading was 7.8%. Thus, it is at the same time a result clearly better than expected, but at the same time it is a decrease of 1%. Why did analysts expect such a large drop? The reason is the disruption of supply chains and production problems resulting from the lack of goods. These, however, were not quite as bothersome as it was thought. Taking into account the current market situation, these data had little impact on the zloty.
Yesterday in the morning’s comment we wondered if the seasonally good end of the year could help our currency in the near future and why it is different this time. The next 24 hours brought another, almost avalanche weakening of our currency. In fact, little has changed since yesterday .. Read
Raw material price adjustments
It’s not just crude oil that is going down with the rise in COVID incidence. Fear of a lockdown is causing the valuations of other commodities to drop from the October highs as well. We are talking about other energy resources, such as coal or industrial metals. Both steel and copper went down. These are not declines yet that negate price increases in a pandemic. In the longer term, making commodity prices real should be a stimulus to stabilize prices in economies. Of course, this does not mean the end of inflation right away, just one of the stimuli is weakening.
In the calendar of macroeconomic data, it is worth paying attention to:
- 15:45 – USA – manufacturing PMI index,
- 16:00 – USA – Richmont FED index.