Looking at the optimistic forecasts from 2019, we can assume that if it were not for the pandemic, the sales pace of passenger cars in 2020 and 2021 would remain at levels similar to those in 2019.
At the end of 2020, there were 1,200,226 newly registered passenger cars, which in comparison to 2019, where there were 1,484,787 registrations in total, means 284,561 cars less compared to the year. We would like to remind you that 2020 was a pandemic year in which strict lockdowns were in force, including the ban on leaving the house.
We currently know the registration data for the three quarters of 2021. At the moment, we have 1 007 977 passenger cars registered. In the same period of 2019, we had 1,114,932 registered cars. This gives us the result of registration already by 106,955 cars less in 2021, comparing the same periods. And yet this year there were no lockdowns anymore.
This means that in the period from March 2020 to October 2021, as many as 391,516 passenger cars disappeared from the market.
The collapse of sales of new cars in the initial period of the pandemic, led to, inter alia, to the semiconductor crisis that hit the automotive market. The crisis has disrupted not only the production and availability of new cars, but also disrupted the balance on the secondary market and triggered price increases. Currently, the forced transition to electromobility is also not helping the industry.
Such a poor registration result is only better than the data from 2014 and 2015, where they were respectively 1,046,779 (2014) and 1,146,859 (2015).
“This means that as a result of the pandemic we have moved back by as much as 6 – 7 years in the sale of passenger cars” – says Marek Trofimiuk, member of the management board of autobaza.pl. clearly that this trend has changed since July.
Currently, for the third quarter of 2021, we have 17 794 registrations less than in 2020. Moreover, there are many reasons that the downward trend will continue until the end of the year. This is due to huge supply problems both on the new car market and on the aftermarket.
The final number of registrations for the entire year 2021 will show us the scale of the crisis. What are the chances of defeating it? Will we manage to break the downward trend in 2022? We have to wait for the data and developments in the markets.
For sure the first half of the year will not be too optimistic, but perhaps the second half of 2022 will be a reversal of this trend …?
The question remains, when will we make up for these losses? Because after the crisis in 2008-2012, it took at least three years for the pace of registration to accelerate again.