What forecasts for the fertilizer market? Fertilizer prices – January 2022

Since yesterday, i.e. from January 11, 2022, everyone has been living the subject of 0 percent. VAT on fertilizers. We have already written about this on the farmer.pl portal, presenting both the facts and the opinions of farmers. What are the forecasts for the market?

Soon we will also publish a text with an economist’s commentary on this topic. Meanwhile, we want to focus on the fertilizer market in general. We will try to assess what will affect this market in the near future, not discussing the issue of Vatu, which will undoubtedly have a big impact on it (about this in the next articles – we encourage you to follow farmer.pl).

What VAT reductions in the - MP and not government - draft?
The government cuts VAT on fertilizers to zero!
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What forecasts for the fertilizer market in 2022?

– The current situation on the domestic fertilizer market is still uncertain. There are contradictory information on the availability of fertilizers from the market, in some voivodeships it is better in this respect, in some it is worse. Prices have been rather stable in recent weeks, possibly rising slightly, however, if some fertilizers become more expensive, the growth rate is much slower than that observed in September and October last year – says Arkadiusz Zalewski from the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Food Economy for farmer.pl PIB in Warsaw.

See the fertilizer offer on the Agricultural Exchange website.

He adds that many farmers still refrain from purchasing fertilizers, hoping for cuts. Due to the abolition of VAT, it will most likely last until February (from then on, these regulations are to enter into force).

– Besides, some of them will definitely limit the purchase due to very high prices. Perhaps, however, lower demand than in the previous years may be a factor that will drive down prices. Nevertheless, by the end of the first quarter, the scale of possible cuts will probably not be large, the scientist believes.

He cites here the data that the import of nitrogen fertilizers has been significantly lower in recent months than a year earlier (by about 25 percent), and the prices of natural gas and phosphate rock remain at a relatively high level.

– This causes the prices of fertilizers, despite lower demand, they are still at high, record levels. On the other hand, the prices of fertilizers in world trade are stabilizing and this may be a sign of the upward trend being halted and its transformation into a downward trend. This, in turn, in the perspective of a few months, would translate into lower prices on the domestic market – adds Arkadiusz Zalewski.

Fertilizer prices January 2022

Fertilizer price lists are still posted on social media. We learn from them that, for example, saletrosan currently costs approx. PLN 2,800 / t gross, and ammonium nitrate nearly PLN 3,000. PLN / t net. Much depends on the distributor, because the prices can be quite different elsewhere (see the information below).

In addition, access is very different, especially where it concerns a larger amount of the product. On the other hand, there are also photos like the one below.

Farmers report that the purchase of potassium salt is almost a miracle, as well as potassium-magnesium fertilizers. Is this the result of the information that Yara completely stops importing potassium salt from Belarus?

Yara suspends the import of potassium salt from Belarus

Why is the cost of fertilizer increasing?

The farmprogress.com website focused on this topic, which states that it is not only the increase in ammonia prices. Phosphorus, potash, and urea are experiencing the same unprecedented growth, thanks to high gas prices, but more.

Fertilizer market.  How have fertilizer prices changed in 2021?

– In late December, prices for phosphorus (diammonium phosphate – DAP and monoammonium phosphate – MAP), potassium (potash) and urea were close to or higher than $ 800 per ton, and urea and monoammonium phosphate were above $ 900, according to the Illinois Production Cost Report. by the USDA Department of Agricultural Market Research. These prices are well beyond the $ 350 to $ 500 range for all three products at the same time in 2020, making them the highest tier, the portal says.

– China is one of the main suppliers of the US, and the country has imposed restrictions on the export of phosphates. Due to trade dispute, there are also import duties. World stocks are tight, MU economist Ray Massey said at the University of Missouri Crop Management conference in November, quoted by farmprogress.com.

There are many factors related to supply chains and the way processes operate, which have driven the price of fertilizers up. Meanwhile, global demand for phosphorus remains high. There is a problem with restoring inventory.

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About Eric Wilson

The variety offered by video games never ceases to amaze him. He loves OutRun's drifting as well as the contemplative walks of Dear Esther. Immersing himself in other worlds is an incomparable feeling for him: he understood it by playing for the first time in Shenmue.

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